CORNERFLICK
South Africa and Canada meet in Los Angeles on Sunday in the first last-16 tie of the 2026 World Cup, and both teams are appearing in the knockout stage for the first time.
Opta’s pre-match model gives Canada a 55% chance of winning in normal time from 25,000 simulations. South Africa’s chance of a 90-minute victory is put at 20%, with 24.9% for the match to reach extra time and penalties. Canada are also rated more likely to go through, at 67.8% to South Africa’s 32.2%.
It is only the second meeting between the sides. South Africa won the first, a 2-0 friendly in Durban in 2007.
South Africa reached the knockouts as runners-up in Group A, ahead of South Korea and the Czech Republic and behind Mexico. They did so despite recording the fewest touches in the opposition box in their group, with 35, and the fewest big chances, with two.
Canada, who lost 2-1 to Switzerland in their final group game, finished on four points and progressed despite missing out on top spot in Group B. Promes David scored their only goal in that defeat.
Hugo Broos’ side are led by Tlapelo Masoko, who scored the winner against South Korea, while Jesse Marsch will look to Nathan Seliبا, who has had a direct hand in three of Canada’s goals in the tournament. Canada have also improved markedly in attack under Marsch, reaching 21 shots on target in the group stage.】【。json