Opta’s supercomputer has backed Spain to win the 2026 World Cup after running 10,000 simulations of the tournament.
Spain were given a 16.1% chance of lifting the trophy and were the only team rated to have better than a 50% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Opta’s model also had them reaching the final in 25.6% of simulations.
France came next at 13%, followed by England on 11.2% and Argentina on 10.4%. Portugal were listed on 7%, Brazil on 6.6% and Germany on 5.1%.
The 2026 tournament will be the first World Cup to feature 48 teams and will be staged across the United States, Mexico and Canada. Opta’s projections also suggested the three hosts face long odds of winning the title, although qualification for the knockout rounds remains plausible.
The expanded format could still open the door to surprises, with Opta highlighting teams such as Norway, the Netherlands and Morocco as possible outsiders. Iran are also in the field and have been drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt.