Spain move top of Marca's World Cup model

Spain have moved to the top of Marca's World Cup prediction model after beating Portugal, with the data tool now giving Luis de la Fuente's side a 31.3% chance of winning the tournament.

That is a rise of 10.5 percentage points and Spain's highest probability since the tournament began. Before the update, a draw with Cape Verde and results elsewhere had dragged La Roja down to around 20%, leaving them behind the two teams they faced in last year's final, Argentina and France.

Marca's model uses an Elo-based rating system that updates after every match, rather than relying on FIFA rankings. The method gives more weight to wins over stronger opponents, then runs 100,000 full tournament simulations to produce its numbers.

France are next in the table on 23.4%, with Argentina on 22.2%.