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Kane, Mbappé and Messi lead Ballon d'Or shake-up

World Cup form has reset the race, with Lionel Messi surging back into contention and Harry Kane still top of the table.

Filed Wednesday, 08 July 2026

Kane, Mbappé and Messi lead Ballon d'Or shake-up

Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi are the leading names in a Ballon d'Or race transformed by the World Cup. The tournament has again shown how quickly a few weeks of international football can alter the picture for the game’s biggest individual prize.

Messi has been the biggest mover. Before the tournament, the Argentina forward had just 0.97% chance of winning the award; that has risen to 10.34%, putting him fifth in the latest list of contenders.

Kane remains first with 22.27%, slightly up from 20.11%. Mbappé is now his closest challenger after a run of seven World Cup goals took him from 4.36% to 19.30%.

Jude Bellingham has also climbed back into the top 10, rising from 0.64% to 4.26%. Erling Haaland is up to 6.59%, while Michael Olise stands at 12.06%.

Some of the club season’s leading names have slipped. Declan Rice has dropped from 10.89% to 3.45%, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from 7.26% to 4.83%, and Ousmane Dembélé from 14.52% to 12.06%.

Paris Saint-Germain had five players in the top 10 before the tournament, but only those who have shone on the international stage have held their places.

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