CORNERFLICK
Opta’s supercomputer correctly identified five of the eight teams to reach the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals after the last-16 round finished.
The data model, which runs thousands of simulations for each scenario, was broadly in line with the results across the knockout stage. It had given Brazil close to a 67% chance of going through and rated France as the clear pick against Paraguay with an 86% win probability.
That call on France came off, but there were also errors. Opta had predicted a United States win over Belgium, only for Belgium to advance instead. In total, it failed to name the correct side in three of the eight last-16 matches.
The model had also performed strongly in the previous round, correctly picking the winner in 14 of 16 matches. Opta has used around 10,000 simulations per scenario in its tournament predictions and has previously made successful calls in club competition, including forecasting Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League title run with a 56% chance.
Other statistical models have offered different views on the title race, but the World Cup now moves towards its final stages with the numbers set against what happens on the pitch.