The Intense Ballon d'Or Race Between Rodri, Messi, and Mbappé

Spanish newspaper Marca, referring to a statement from the Ballon d'Or organizers emphasizing that winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup does not automatically guarantee the award, has analyzed the chances of the five leading contenders: Rodri, Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Harry Kane.

Just days after the conclusion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, debate has intensified over who will win this year's Ballon d'Or, which will be presented on October 26 in London. In its analysis, Marca argues that while World Cup success is an important factor, it is not, by itself, enough to secure football's most prestigious individual honor.

Winning the World Cup Is Not Enough

The Ballon d'Or organizers (France Football magazine) recently published an article stressing that although winning the 2026 World Cup strengthens a player's candidacy, it does not guarantee victory. According to historical data, only 57% of Ballon d'Or winners in World Cup years have also won the tournament.

For example, Lionel Messi won the Ballon d'Or in 2010, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2014, and Luka Modrić in 2018, despite not winning the World Cup in those respective years.

The Five Leading Ballon d'Or Contenders

1. Rodri (Spain / Manchester City)

• Named the Best Player of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
• Spain's standout performer throughout the tournament.
• Made a remarkable comeback from a serious knee injury and led Manchester City in the Premier League.

2. Lamine Yamal (Spain / Barcelona)

• Won the World Cup with Spain at just 19 years old.
• Recorded an outstanding club season with 24 goals and 17 assists for Barcelona.
• Helped Barcelona win La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup.

3. Lionel Messi (Argentina / Inter Miami)

• Finished as the World Cup runner-up, scoring 8 goals and providing 4 assists.
• At 39 years of age, he continues to perform at the highest level.

4. Kylian Mbappé (France / Real Madrid)

• Won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals, setting new scoring records.
• Finished as the top scorer in both the UEFA Champions League and La Liga.

5. Harry Kane (England / Bayern Munich)

• Won the European Golden Shoe after scoring 61 goals for Bayern Munich.
• Guided Bayern to the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal titles.
• Scored 6 goals at the World Cup, surpassing Gary Lineker's England scoring record in the tournament.

Conclusion

Rodri enters the Ballon d'Or race as one of the strongest favorites, thanks to his World Cup MVP award and his leadership role in Spain's triumph. However, Mbappé's extraordinary individual performances—despite France falling short—and Lamine Yamal's remarkable achievements at both international and club level make the race exceptionally competitive.

This year's Ballon d'Or contest is shaping up to be one of the closest and most exciting in recent years.